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Public 7 January 2026 5 min read

Département du Var

How "Département du Var" is able to ancitipate budget variation with Predictive Series Analysis

Business Context

For French departments, DMTO (Droits de Mutation à Titre Onéreux) – commonly known as "notary fees" – represent a major part of their revenue, often more than 20% of their overall budget.

The Var Department, an attractive area in the south of France, is particularly dependent on this revenue linked to the property market. In a fluctuating economic climate, the ability to anticipate this revenue is crucial for budget planning and investment decisions.

Challenges

  • Lack of government forecasts: The government does not provide forecasts or detailed data to anticipate DMTO amounts.
  • Volatility of the property market: In a fluctuating economic climate closely linked to property, revenues are difficult to predict.
  • Critical budgetary issue: With more than 20% of the budget dependent on DMTO, uncertainty impacts all planning.
  • Need for anticipation: Need to secure budget planning and adjust investments.
  • Strategic decision support: Inform departmental decisions with reliable projections.

Solution implemented

  • Trend curve: Monthly change in DMTO with smoothed trend
  • Analysis by property type: Distribution of transactions (< €1,000,000, €200-500K, etc.)
  • Transaction volume: Number of transactions per period
  • AI prediction: META's PROPHET model for sales forecasting
  • Historical data
  • Confidence intervals
  • Short- and medium-term forecasts
  • Map of the Var: Geographical analysis by municipality with colour coding
  • Comparative graphs: Gross/refunded amount including VAT vs property value

Key Results

  • Visual predictive analysis: Short- and medium-term DMTO revenue projections
  • Automation: Automatic updating of forecasts with new data
  • Accessibility: Tool can be used without data science skills
  • Transformed WebI: SAP WebI becomes a truly intelligent budget dashboard
  • Informed public decision-making: Elected officials have reliable projections for their decisions
  • Budget security: Better anticipation of tax revenues
  • Extension to public policy: Management of RSA and childhood policies using the same technology
Département du Var (France) Public
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