Département du Var
How "Département du Var" is able to ancitipate budget variation with Predictive Series Analysis
Business Context
For French departments, DMTO (Droits de Mutation à Titre Onéreux) – commonly known as "notary fees" – represent a major part of their revenue, often more than 20% of their overall budget. The Var Department, an attractive area in the south of France, is particularly dependent on this revenue linked to the property market. In a fluctuating economic climate, the ability to anticipate this revenue is crucial for budget planning and investment decisions.
Challenges
- Lack of government forecasts: The government does not provide forecasts or detailed data to anticipate DMTO amounts.
- Volatility of the property market: In a fluctuating economic climate closely linked to property, revenues are difficult to predict.
- Critical budgetary issue: With more than 20% of the budget dependent on DMTO, uncertainty impacts all planning.
- Need for anticipation: Need to secure budget planning and adjust investments.
- Strategic decision support: Inform departmental decisions with reliable projections.
Solution implemented
- Trend curve: Monthly change in DMTO with smoothed trend
- Analysis by property type: Distribution of transactions (< €1,000,000, €200-500K, etc.)
- Transaction volume: Number of transactions per period
- AI prediction: META's PROPHET model for sales forecasting
- Historical data
- Confidence intervals
- Short- and medium-term forecasts
- Map of the Var: Geographical analysis by municipality with colour coding
- Comparative graphs: Gross/refunded amount including VAT vs property value
Key Results
- Visual predictive analysis: Short- and medium-term DMTO revenue projections
- Automation: Automatic updating of forecasts with new data
- Accessibility: Tool can be used without data science skills
- Transformed WebI: SAP WebI becomes a truly intelligent budget dashboard
- Informed public decision-making: Elected officials have reliable projections for their decisions
- Budget security: Better anticipation of tax revenues
- Extension to public policy: Management of RSA and childhood policies using the same technology